Saturday, December 18, 2010
Inflation usually means higher interest rate
There is big debate going on in the financial markets, if we will get inflation or deflation. I personally believe there is a bigger chance for deflation, but i do not rule inflation if politicians are determined enough. I will tell you why i think it is going to be more likely deflation. If we do get more inflation by either money creation or actual real growth, it will likely cause a higher interest rate. If the scenario of high inflation plays out, interest rates will shoot up. This will cause households to go bankrupt, because they cannot ask for higher wages with so much excess supply in the labour force (and the vast supply of labour in china). Not only households will get into trouble, but also the US government. I do not think that the US government can afford interest rates of 7% anymore. Just like Japan, who has a debt of 200% of GDP, it has never allowed to let interest go higher from almost 0% for the last decade.
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